CORONAVIRUS IN BANGLADESH: SLOWDOWN IN GDP GROWTH
Asian Development Bank (ADB) speculates a slight slowdown in the growth of GDP of Bangladesh for the financial year 2019-20.
In the earlier, ADB forecast the GDP growth rate by 8.00% but amid the worldwide pandemic this GDP growth will be 7.8%. This projection is not made only on the basis of COVID-19 pandemic but also on the political stability, consumer demand, net export, remittance and other factors.
On the other hand, WB and IMF forecast the GDP growth respectively by 7.2% and 7.6%. While the Government has predicted to have a growth of 8.2%.
COVID-19 foists spillover effects worldwide. International trade tumbled down. Economic activities slumped because of supply-side shock. Stock markets become volatile and unpredictable.
China is the major supplier of Bangladesh. Export of Bangladesh is mainly based on imported raw materials. 84% of our export earnings come from apparel export. Whereas EU, US, and Canada, contributes around 62%, 18% and 3% respectively in the apparel export earning (Ref: BGMEA).
Apprehension is rising as the EU, US and Canada severely affected by COVID-19. Export earning will have a shortfall unless a proper action taken proactively.
Remittance contributed to the GDP by 5.49% in FY 2017-18. From July 2019 to February 2020, Bangladesh received around $12 billion remittance. Remittance inflow declined in March. Such decline may continue as many non-resident Bangladeshi come back to Bangladesh and many more are suffering from COVID-19 crisis.
Bangladesh may sustain the upward growth if the it manages timely, accurately, and strategically.
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